Audio Interview

Predictions and pandemics: why economies relapse before they recover

Published on October 10, 2021   29 min

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Interviewer: Today I'm interviewing Professor Stephen Roach. Dr. Roach is a senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs, and a senior lecturer at Yale School of Management. For most of his 30 years at Morgan Stanley, he was the firm's chief economist, he was also chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. Dr. Roach, this is the 22nd of December 2020, there's a raging pandemic, but vaccines - expected to be highly effective - have been developed and are being deployed. As I understand it, you believe that recoveries from recession tend to relapse before they rebound. My questions are: what do you expect to happen this time; why; what should businesses do if they accept your analysis? Prof. Roach: First of all, Neil, let me say that I'm very optimistic that these vaccines, when they are fully distributed, can begin to lead to a tailing-off of this horrific pandemic, that will be a very encouraging development for human society and for the global economy, but that will not occur overnight. Between now and then ('then' being probably late 2021) we are likely to have another one of these relapses in economic activity that is referred to in financial market jargon as 'the double-dip'.

Predictions and pandemics: why economies relapse before they recover

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