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Topics Covered
- The need for predicting asthma exacerbations
- Development and evaluation of the XGBoost algorithm for predicting asthma exacerbations
- Key risk factors for asthma exacerbations identified in the study
- Algorithm limitations and ethical considerations
- Further establishing causality in identified risk factors
Biography
Nestor Molfino is a Respiratory Medicine Specialist by training who also holds a degree in Molecular Immunology. Dr. Molfino has been working on the development of therapies to treat respiratory conditions for the last 20 years, mostly biologics. In the last two years he has expanded his interests into the use of AI to pinpoint clusters of patients who may benefit from precision medicines and to augment the decision-making process and prognosis of patients with respiratory conditions. Currently he is Executive Medical Director at Amgen, Inc.
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Talk Citation
Molfino, N. (2025, April 30). Predicting asthma exacerbations using machine learning models [Audio file]. In The Biomedical & Life Sciences Collection, Henry Stewart Talks. Retrieved May 5, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.69645/IXIG4584.Export Citation (RIS)
Publication History
- Published on April 30, 2025
Financial Disclosures
- Dr. Nestor Molfino has not informed HSTalks of any commercial/financial relationship that it is appropriate to disclose.
Other Talks in the Playlist: Research and Clinical Interviews
Transcript
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0:00
Interviewer: Dr.
Nestor Molfino,
thank you very much
for joining us today.
You and your colleagues
recently published a paper
describing the training of
machine learning algorithms
using electronic
health record data
in order to predict
asthma exacerbations
in real-world patients.
Can you start by describing
the gap that you identified
regarding the prediction
of asthma exacerbations?
What guided your approach
for addressing it?
Dr. Molfino: Hi.
Thanks for having me.
Asthma is a chronic
respiratory condition
that affects millions
of people worldwide,
and there are different
degrees of severity,
from mild, moderate to severe,
according to the amount
of medication required
to control the disease
for a particular patient.
Now, the factors triggered
in asthma exacerbations,
that we know so far,
include respiratory infections,
allergens, pollutants,
and even emotional upsets.
There may be other factors
that are less well-known.
In the case of asthma
exacerbations in severe patients,
the factors are
pretty well-known
because we have studied
this patient population
in randomized clinical trials,
where we found that having
had a prior exacerbation
or having elevated
biomarkers of inflammation,
such as elevated levels
of blood eosinophils
or high levels of
expired nitric oxide
in the exhaled
breath, called FeNO,
those are factors that
are predisposing to
the next exacerbation.