Winner’s curse, replication and meta-analysis

Published on March 31, 2016   38 min

Other Talks in the Series: Statistical Genetics

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FRANK DUDBRIDGE: "Winner's Curse, Replication and Meta-Analysis." Frank Dudbridge, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
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This talk covers three issues that often arise when following up the results of a Genome Wide Association Study. The winner's curse is the tendency to see a larger effect than you would usually see when first discovering this effect. Replication concerns how genetic associations are confirmed in further studies. And meta-analysis concerns combining multiple Genome Wide Association Studies into a single summary result.
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So to understand the winner's curse, we can consider a situation of an auction. So supposing that an item is up for auction. And in this auction, each bidder will submit a sealed bid for the item. Now, suppose that the true value of the item could be defined as the average of all of these bids. Then because of the way an auction works, the winner of the auction must pay more than the true value of the item. Because the winner is the person who's made the highest bid for the item, then the highest bid must be higher than the average of the bids. So the winner has paid more than the true value of the item. So this is what is known as the winner's curse. The winner is paying more than the true value. Now this effect actually occurs in many settings.
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Winner’s curse, replication and meta-analysis

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