FRANK DUDBRIDGE: "Winner's Curse,
Replication and Meta-Analysis."
Frank Dudbridge, London School
of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
This talk covers
three issues that often
arise when following up the results
of a Genome Wide Association Study.
The winner's curse is
the tendency to see
a larger effect than
you would usually see
when first discovering this effect.
how genetic associations
are confirmed in further studies.
And meta-analysis concerns combining
multiple Genome Wide Association
Studies into a single
So to understand
the winner's curse, we can
consider a situation of an auction.
So supposing that
an item is up for auction.
And in this auction,
each bidder will
submit a sealed bid for the item.
Now, suppose that
the true value of the item
could be defined as
the average of all of these bids.
Then because of the way an auction
works, the winner of the auction
must pay more than
the true value of the item.
Because the winner is the person
who's made the highest
bid for the item, then
the highest bid must be higher
than the average of the bids.
So the winner has paid more
than the true value of the item.
So this is what is known
as the winner's curse.
The winner is paying
more than the true value.
Now this effect actually
occurs in many settings.