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Dear listeners, my name is Jan Willem Blankert.
I'm an analyst of events in Europe and in Asia.
In this talk, I want to discuss with you Europe's most serious problem today,
that six-year economic slump of the eurozone.
It's the longest period,
consider that of peacetime economic stagnation in Europe.
The longest period of peacetime stagnation since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
How can we improve the living standards of the people in the EU?
How can we restore the economic growth path we were on?
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I would first like to show you how this long slow down can be explained and second,
if there's a way out.
My conclusion is that the main reason for this continuous half recession has been wrong
policies applied by myopic policymakers who have been focusing on the wrong issues.
It is sad to see the outward suffering this has caused in
Southern Europe and the stagnation and lack of progress in eurozone countries in general,
including Germany, where in spite of the praise the country receives,
the real progress of income per head has been practically zero over the last decade.
Full disclosure: my talk is based on
the first chapter of a book I'm writing about the euro,
how it works, and how bad policies have contributed to bad economic outcomes.
My idea is to give you a pre-taste now of that book.
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If you are lucky, the eurozone will see some economic growth in 2015,
after six years of stagnation from 2009-2014.
The crisis that began in 2009 affected all eurozone members.
In 2014, the eurozone economy was 1.5 percent smaller than in 2008.
Even the economy of Germany, a top performer,
was no more than a meager
three percent larger than in 2008.
In the years before 2008,
annual economic growth rates of between 1.5 percent and say,
two percent were the standard.
Unemployment in the eurozone stands well above 11 percent now.
I'm talking 2015; that is more than twice as high as unemployment in the United States.
Political leaders in the European Union held a prospect of
possibly more than one percent economic growth in Spain in 2015,
maybe even 1.5 percent.
Fine, but this is after six years during
which Spain saw its economy shrink by eight percent,
unemployment goes up to 25 percent,
and youth unemployment to 50 percent.
Yes, this tepid growth is a success,
if coming out of a disaster can be considered a success.
For Greece, the story is that there are salary decreases of 25 percent,
pensions were slashed by 40 percent,
tens of thousands of government workers fired,
and the healthcare system is in shambles.
At the same time, the rich in Greece still escape from paying their taxes.
