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Printable Handouts
Navigable Slide Index
- Introduction
- Use of models: some key controversies
- Clinical vs. actuarial judgment
- The clinical approach
- The actuarial approach
- Evidence regarding clinical judgment
- Example - red Bordeaux wine auctions
- Comparison of clinical and actuarial judgment
- Findings from 100 studies
- The ethics of use of actuarial approaches
- Why do we continue to use clinical judgment?
- Proper and improper linear models
- Models of man
- Evidence regarding models of man
- Clinical synthesis
- Effectiveness of clinical synthesis (1)
- Effectiveness of clinical synthesis (2)
- Encouraging the use of clinical synthesis
- Free lunches and nudges
- Dan Ariely – Predictably Irrational
- Ariely’s position (1)
- Ariely’s position (2)
- Thaler and Sunstein
- Nudge introduction
- When “nudges” are needed
- Costs now – benefits later
- Benefits now – costs later
- Knowing what you like
- The fun theory
- Statistical groups and prediction markets
- Statistical groups
- Evidence of statistical group accuracy
- Prediction markets
- Some popular prediction markets
- The Iowa electronic market
- Intrade’s Oscar picks
- Internal company prediction markets
- Google’s prediction market
- Best Buy’s prediction market
- A prediction market for terrorism futures
- Concluding comments
- Suggestions for additional reading (1)
- Suggestions for additional reading (2)
This material is restricted to subscribers.
Topics Covered
- Clinical Decision Making, Actuarial Models, and Clinical Synthesis
- Proper and Improper Linear Models
- Models of Man
- Choice Architecture
- Paternalistic Intervention
- Free Lunches and Nudges
- Statistical Groups
- Prediction Markets
- Ethics in Decision Making
Talk Citation
Aldag, R.J. (2014, August 7). Decision making 2 [Video file]. In The Business & Management Collection, Henry Stewart Talks. Retrieved October 8, 2024, from https://doi.org/10.69645/IHQW5174.Export Citation (RIS)
Publication History
Decision making 2
Published on August 7, 2014
41 min