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- Development
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2. Selecting strategies and developing the business continuity plan
- Mr. Douglas M. Henderson
- Implementation and Maintenance
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4. Adding value to business continuity management through external relations
- Mr. Daniel P. Iradi
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5. Keeping the plan ready through awareness, testing and maintenance
- Prof. Natalie M. Dengler
- Applications and Approaches
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6. Continuity of operations planning for academic institutions
- Mr. Douglas M. Henderson
- Interdependent Systems
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8. Supply continuity planning
- Prof. George A. Zsidisin
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9. Risk issues of software and IT outsourcing and its impact on business continuity
- Dr. Rory V. O'Connor
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10. Sustainability and business risk
- Prof. Markus Biehl
- Systems and Infrastructure
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11. Building business resiliency through control system principles
- Prof. Donald R. Moscato
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12. Information systems for crisis management
- Prof. Shoshana S. Altschuller
- Risk Modeling
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13. Risk, uncertainty and decision making models
- Prof. José M. Merigó
- Archived Lectures *These may not cover the latest advances in the field
Printable Handouts
Navigable Slide Index
- Introduction
- Agenda
- Risk
- Risk analysis
- Risk assessment
- Risk management
- Estimating likelihood and consequence
- Example: economic loss due to cyber attacks
- Bayesian models
- Calculating posterior of the model
- N observations
- Back to the example problem (1)
- A second look at the problem
- Hierarchical Bayesian model
- Solve hierarchical Bayesian models (1)
- Solve hierarchical Bayesian models (2)
- MCMC simulation using Winbugs
- Back to the example problem (2)
- Cyber attack HBM in Winbugs
- Results of HBM
- Comparing with separate Bayesian model
- Further considerations
- Summary
- Thank you
This material is restricted to subscribers.
Topics Covered
- Risk analysis
- Risk assessment
- Risk management
- Likelihood
- Consequence
- Sparse data
- Systems engineering
- Bayesian statistics
- Hierarchical Bayesian model
- Cyber attack
- Extreme event
- Rare event
- Process control system
- Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation
- Winbugs
Talk Citation
Yan, Z. (2012, January 1). Risk analysis of complex systems: using hierarchical bayesian models [Video file]. In The Business & Management Collection, Henry Stewart Talks. Retrieved April 26, 2024, from https://hstalks.com/bm/2007/.Export Citation (RIS)