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Printable Handouts
Navigable Slide Index
- Introduction
- Course outline
- Synopsis (part 2)
- Prior information
- Increasing the data strength
- Decreasing the prior strength
- Weak prior formulations
- Uniformity is untenable
- Many weak priors
- When should we use weak priors?
- Informative priors
- Elicitation
- The questions influence the answers: example (1)
- The questions influence the answers: example (2)
- Heuristics and biases
- What to ask for in elicitation?
- Probabilities
- Fitting a distribution
- Elicitation: case study
- Bayesian clinical trial simulation
- Distributions elicited
- Elicitation record
- Eliciting one distribution
- Multivariate elicitation
- Example: patient level IPA
- Hierarchical modelling
- Resources on elicitation
- Concluding remarks
Topics Covered
- An important component of the Bayesian approach is its use of prior information in addition to the data
- Requires the formulation of prior information as a prior probability distribution
- Ways of specifying prior distributions
- Weak prior distributions
- Informative prior distributions
- Elicitation of expert knowledge and hierarchical modeling
- Psychological biases to be avoided
- Good elicitation practice
- Case study in drug development
Talk Citation
O’Hagan, A. (2009, February 16). Prior distributions [Video file]. In The Biomedical & Life Sciences Collection, Henry Stewart Talks. Retrieved April 19, 2021, from https://hstalks.com/bs/1145/.Publication History
Financial Disclosures
- Prof. Anthony O’Hagan has not informed HSTalks of any commercial/financial relationship that it is appropriate to disclose.