Please wait while the transcript is being prepared...
0:00
Hello. This is a
short introduction
to the series of talks
entitled 'Expert Knowledge
Elicitation with SHELF'.
0:10
Expert Knowledge
Elicitation with SHELF
is a short course
of four lectures.
It provides an introduction
to the SHELF methodology.
SHELF is the Sheffield
Elicitation Framework, the SHELF
methodology for Expert
Knowledge Elicitation,
often shortened to EKE.
My name is Tony O'Hagan.
I'm one of the developers
of the SHELF method.
I'm also Emeritus Professor
at the University of Sheffield.
In this presentation,
I'm going to briefly
explain to you what
elicitation is, why
it's important,
why it needs to be done
carefully and rigorously,
all about the SHELF protocol,
and then, to briefly
explain the four
lectures in the course,
the series that they
take you through.
In other words,
what I'm trying to
do in this presentation is
to teach you why you
should follow that course.
1:00
Elicitation is the process of
representing the knowledge that
is held by one or more people,
we call them experts.
They needn't necessarily
be very expert,
but they're the people whose
knowledge you want to have,
and it's that
knowledge concerning
some uncertain quantity.
We're going to express
that knowledge as
a probability distribution
for that quantity.
That's the key. We're going
to express knowledge,
information as a
probability distribution.
A distribution that expresses
how likely it is
that that quantity
takes different values according
to the judgements
of the experts.
It's typically conducted
as a dialogue between,
on the one hand, the experts.
They'll have what we call
substantive knowledge.
Knowledge about the
quantity or quantities
of interest that we're going
to be asking them about.
But also, there's a facilitator.
A facilitator has a
different expertise,
a process expertise.
Expertise about
the process of
elicitation, and working
together to try and get
the best and most
accurate representation
of the experts' knowledge.
