# Expert knowledge elicitation with SHELF: uncertainty and probability

Published on February 28, 2023   29 min
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#### Other Talks in the Series: Expert Knowledge Elicitation with SHELF

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0:00
Welcome to this series of talks entitled Expert Knowledge Elicitation with SHELF. This is the first talk in the series, it's entitled Uncertainty and Probability, and my name is Tony O'Hagan.
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Here is the series of talks as a whole. As I said, there are four talks in the series, the first is this one; Uncertainty and Probability, where we'll talk about elicitation, which is a method of eliciting probabilities essentially to describe uncertainties. The next two talks, the second and the third, are concerned with real issues of fundamentals of the SHELF method, which is the method of eliciting expert knowledge that we'll use in this course. Finally, the fourth talk is about techniques and advanced things which we'll come to when we get there.
0:48
The outline of this talk is, there are two parts; motivation and probability. The first part talks about uncertainty and decision-making, and gives examples of where expert knowledge elicitation would be important in decision-making. Then we'll talk about probabilities and science, and elicitation generally.
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Motivation. Uncertainty is everywhere.
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It will always be with us, it's always unwelcome; people like certainty. Admitting uncertainty is often thought to be a sign of weakness. Politicians don't admit they're uncertain about things. People don't vote for politicians that say they're uncertain; they want certainty. Children are not taught about it. If you've got children, you probably are not saying to them when they ask you about why something because there's a certain probability of something. Children are not taught about it at all, really. They don't come to terms with uncertainty except when they're just randomly faced with things without ever quantifying those uncertainties. Uncertainty is the domain for the statistician. Statisticians work with uncertainty. We quantify it, we model it, we analyse it, and we do analysis of data to reduce uncertainty. Now for this talk, you won't need to know a lot about statistics because elicitation is a much simpler process than all the complicated statistics that people are taught at university.
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