Please wait while the transcript is being prepared...
0:00
Welcome to the 'Expert Knowledge
Elicitation with
SHELF' course, Part 4.
This part is called
Skills and Resources.
My name is Tony O'Hagan.
I'm an emeritus professor at
the University of Sheffield.
0:15
We'll begin by just reviewing
the course as a whole.
There are four talks in it.
This is the last one,
and the first was on
Uncertainty and Probability,
then we had One Distribution,
One Expert, then
Multiple Experts,
and today we're going to be
doing Skills and Resources.
We'll be talking
about the roles of
the facilitator and the
recorder and we'll be
talking briefly about
multivariate elicitation,
and then we'll look
at some case studies.
0:41
If you've just
finished looking at
Part 3 (Multiple Experts),
in that part, we considered
the general problem of
eliciting a single distribution
from multiple experts.
We looked at different
ways of doing that.
We saw how SHELF approaches it
using behavioural
aggregation with
several key features and then we
looked at various SHELF methods
for eliciting judgements.
Different techniques you can use
within the SHELF framework.
Again, for eliciting from
individual experts and from
a group in the context of a
single quantity of interest.
1:14
In this part, we will look
at various tasks that we
have to address before
the elicitation
workshop takes place.
A lot of preparation is needed.
We'll give some insights into
the key roles of
facilitator and recorder.
They're skilled roles,
particularly the facilitator,
and they're really
something that you need to
practice before you can
become really competent
and confident in doing it.
We'll talk a little bit about
the key roles of
facilitator and recorder.
I will just introduce
the topic of multivariate
elicitation.
This is quite complex and
we're not going to have
time to deal with it
properly in this course,
but at least give you a
hint of how these things
work when we're dealing with
more than one
quantity of interest.
Finally, I'll do two
more case studies.
One involving hay fever
and one involving asthma,
and we'll see really through
those more complicated ways
that SHELF will be working.
