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Welcome, everybody.
My name is Cecilia Jona-Lasinio.
I am a Senior Researcher
at the Economic Studies
and Economic
Forecasting Division
at the Italian
Statistical Institute.
I am an Adjunct Professor
of International Economics
at LUISS Guido Carli
University in Rome.
Today I'm going to
talk about the role of
the digital transformation for
explaining the recent
productivity trends.
In particular, shed some light
on the new productivity paradox.
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In order to understand
what's going
on in the modern
economies that are
actually experiencing a
digital transformation
involving several aspects of
social and economic life.
Today, we're going to take
a look at the impact of
the digital transformation
on productivity growth,
as well as the role
of intangible capital
and intangible investments
and we will shed some
light on the factors
that matter for understanding
the current
productivity paradox.
If we focus on the
modern economies,
we realize that in order
to lead an economy
successfully through the
fast-changing market conditions,
that the digital transformation
is actually implying,
it is necessary
for the companies,
but also for people to be
ready to adapt to
these fast changes.
For companies, this implies
adopting new business models,
to take better care of
customer relations,
and to deal with very new
and very fast-changing
technological tools.
This is the case for most of
the high digital companies
for which there is
the expectation that,
as they are actually
adopting very fast
and very quickly in the
new digital technology,
they are going to deliver
more, implying less inputs.
In other words, the idea
is that digitalization is
accelerating the pressure that
the companies already have.
In order to deal with the
digital transformation,
companies have to invest
in new capabilities
and abandon old business models.
All of this should,
in principle,
speed up productivity growth.
But what we are actually
observing is that
productivity in the
modern economies already
experienced a prolonged
slowdown since the 60s
that has accelerated after
the financial crisis,
and that has remained the same
also during the COVID crisis.
Now, why is this
evidence so puzzling?
The evidence is so
puzzling because we
are living in the age
of digital disruption,
where we deal every
day with big data
and the services
that can be provided
using artificial intelligence,
consumers are able
to access free goods
and so on and so forth.
In other words, the main idea is
those digital
technologies actually
offer a vast
potential to enhance
welfare and living
standards by raising,
for example, product and
service quality and variety.
This should have a positive
impact on productivity growth.
However, this is not what we
actually observe in the data.
The empirical research,
that actually focuses
on the factors
that drive the
productivity trends,
is still observing a persistent
slow down in
productivity growth.
Now, among the
possible reasons for
this prolonged and
persistent slow down,
is, of course, the idea
that the fusion of
the digital technologies
might be yet incomplete and
heterogeneous across
sectors and countries.
Most economies all over
the world are not yet
experiencing the benefits
of digital transformation.
One of the possible
reasons for these
asymmetric outcomes
across countries
is that there may be slow
and difficult technology.
adoption and low investment
following the global
financial crisis,
but also because of the
most recent shocks.
Now, if we try to focus
on the role of the
digital transformation,
the main idea is that, and
this is where the paradox is,
is that the digital
technologies actually support
innovation and should
generate efficiencies
and facilitate
knowledge spillovers,
helping to speed up
productivity growth.
But let's try to figure out
what the main mechanisms are
to which the digital
transformation is
expected to boost
productivity growth?
Well, essentially,
the mechanism through
