Printable Handouts

PDF

Navigable Slide Index

1. Introduction
2. Use of models: some key controversies
3. Clinical vs. actuarial judgment
4. The clinical approach
5. The actuarial approach
6. Evidence regarding clinical judgment
7. Example - red Bordeaux wine auctions
8. Comparison of clinical and actuarial judgment
9. Findings from 100 studies
10. The ethics of use of actuarial approaches
11. Why do we continue to use clinical judgment?
12. Proper and improper linear models
13. Models of man
14. Evidence regarding models of man
15. Clinical synthesis
16. Effectiveness of clinical synthesis (1)
17. Effectiveness of clinical synthesis (2)
18. Encouraging the use of clinical synthesis
19. Free lunches and nudges
20. Dan Ariely – Predictably Irrational
21. Ariely’s position (1)
22. Ariely’s position (2)
23. Thaler and Sunstein
24. Nudge introduction
25. When “nudges” are needed
26. Costs now – benefits later
27. Benefits now – costs later
28. Knowing what you like
29. The fun theory
30. Statistical groups and prediction markets
31. Statistical groups
32. Evidence of statistical group accuracy
33. Prediction markets
34. Some popular prediction markets
35. The Iowa electronic market
36. Intrade’s Oscar picks
37. Internal company prediction markets
38. Google’s prediction market
39. Best Buy’s prediction market
40. A prediction market for terrorism futures
41. Concluding comments
42. Suggestions for additional reading (1)
43. Suggestions for additional reading (2)

Topics Covered

• Clinical Decision Making, Actuarial Models, and Clinical Synthesis
• Proper and Improper Linear Models
• Models of Man
• Choice Architecture
• Paternalistic Intervention
• Free Lunches and Nudges
• Statistical Groups
• Prediction Markets
• Ethics in Decision Making

Links

Series:

• Organizational Behavior

Categories:

• Management, Leadership & Organisation

Talk Citation

Publication History

• Published on August 7, 2014