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Printable Handouts
Navigable Slide Index
- Introduction
- General situation
- Risk management
- Defining 'risk'
- Example: the 2010 BP oil spill
- Example: launch of the challenger space shuttle
- Biases in risk decision
- Cancer cluster at UCSD? The claims
- Blaming the elevator
- Epidemiologist's report (1)
- Epidemiologist's report (2)
- Intuitive risk perceptions
- Cancer cluster definition
- Is the sample representative?
- "Back of the envelope" calculation
- Is this enough to be 'greater than expected'?
- Representativeness heuristic (and bias)
- Heuristics facilitate decision making efficiency
- Representativeness heuristic can steer us wrong
- Representativeness bias
- Confirmation bias
- Base rates
- Ignoring base rates
- Representativeness and small samples (1)
- Representativeness and small samples (2)
- Fundamental fallacy
- Faith in the 'law' of small numbers
- Gambler's fallacy
- Human capacity to perceive patterns
- Patterns in randomness
- Seeing patterns that are not there
- Temporal version of Texas sharpshooter
- We refuse to attribute deviations to variability
- Exaggerated confidence in early trends (1)
- Exaggerated confidence in early trends (2)
- Exaggerated confidence of own abilities
- What can you do?
- Work to prevent a culture of risk
- Instill a culture of managing risk
- Summary
- Thank you!
- References
This material is restricted to subscribers.
Topics Covered
- Defining risk
- Risk decision biases
- Risk decision heuristics
- Perceptions of cancer clusters
- Intuitive risk perceptions
- Representativeness heuristic
- Errors in risk decisions
- Representativeness bias
- Confirmation bias
- Thinking about base rates
- Fallacy of the 'law' of small numbers
- Overconfidence bias
- Invulnerability bias
- Gambler's fallacy
- Belief in the hot hand
- Seeing patterns in random events
- Texas sharpshooter fallacy
- Implications for businesses
- Developing a culture of risk
- Instilling a culture of managing risk
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Talk Citation
Austin, L.C. (2012, October 31). Cognitive limitations and biases in risk decisions [Video file]. In The Business & Management Collection, Henry Stewart Talks. Retrieved August 31, 2024, from https://doi.org/10.69645/RCBX1699.Export Citation (RIS)