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Printable Handouts
Navigable Slide Index
- Introduction
- Biases in thinking about uncertainties
- Confirmation bias
- Overconfidence bias
- Typical calibration curve for being right
- Slovic's classic study of track handicappers
- Tools for improving assessments of uncertainty
- Dealing with values (preferences)
- Making wise trade-offs
- Values or objectives
- Properties of human preferences
- Prospect theory: value properties
- Weighting of values by probabilities
- Weighting function for probabilities
- "Formal" risk analysis process
- Example of a Tornado diagram
- Example of a risk profile
- Creative dealing with "risky" options
- Risk management strategies
- Conclusion
Topics Covered
- Confirmation and overconfidence biases
- Typical calibration curve for being right
- The gap between confidence and accuracy
- Tools for improving assessments of uncertainty
- Properties of human preferences
- Prospect theory: value properties
- Weighting of values by probabilities
- "Formal" risk analysis process
- Dealing with "risky" options
- Risk management strategies
Talk Citation
Payne, J.W. (2011, September 27). Improving decisions under uncertainty 2 [Video file]. In The Business & Management Collection, Henry Stewart Talks. Retrieved August 31, 2024, from https://doi.org/10.69645/ARCK7782.Export Citation (RIS)
Publication History
Improving decisions under uncertainty 2
Published on September 27, 2011
67 min