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1. Introduction
2. Biases in thinking about uncertainties
3. Confirmation bias
4. Overconfidence bias
5. Typical calibration curve for being right
6. Slovic's classic study of track handicappers
7. Tools for improving assessments of uncertainty
8. Dealing with values (preferences)
9. Making wise trade-offs
10. Values or objectives
11. Properties of human preferences
12. Prospect theory: value properties
13. Weighting of values by probabilities
14. Weighting function for probabilities
15. "Formal" risk analysis process
16. Example of a Tornado diagram
17. Example of a risk profile
18. Creative dealing with "risky" options
19. Risk management strategies
20. Conclusion

Topics Covered

• Confirmation and overconfidence biases
• Typical calibration curve for being right
• The gap between confidence and accuracy
• Tools for improving assessments of uncertainty
• Properties of human preferences
• Prospect theory: value properties
• Weighting of values by probabilities
• "Formal" risk analysis process
• Dealing with "risky" options
• Risk management strategies

Links

Series:

• Making Decisions

Categories:

• Management, Leadership & Organisation

Talk Citation

Publication History

• Published on September 27, 2011