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Printable Handouts
Navigable Slide Index
- Introduction
- Business forecasting
- Pandemic changes
- Some considerations
- Opportunities during the Pandemic
- The three stages of light bulb evolution
- The three stages of prediction evolution
- Standard main body kit forecast
- Standard main body kit
- A reasonable forecast
- A better forecast
- The best forecast?
- Why do companies use these tools?
- An effective data analytics process
- Supply chain order simulation
- Steganography
- Simple average
- Adding trend
- Adding seasonality
- Recognize events and promotions
This material is restricted to subscribers.
Topics Covered
- Prediction
- Supply chain
- Decomposition Model
- Economists
- The Bullwhip Effect
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Talk Citation
Keating, B. (2023, June 29). Time-series forecasting model: cheap changes everything! [Video file]. In The Business & Management Collection, Henry Stewart Talks. Retrieved October 4, 2024, from https://doi.org/10.69645/AWSC9211.Export Citation (RIS)
Publication History
Other Talks in the Series: Business Forecasting and Projections
Transcript
Please wait while the transcript is being prepared...
0:00
Hello, my name is Barry
Keating and I'm on
the faculty of the Mendoza
College of Business
at the University of Notre Dame,
where I've taught
forecasting and analytics
courses for over 30 years.
Cheap changes everything.
0:17
When the price of
something falls,
we use more of it.
It's happening right now
with business forecasting.
If economists are
good at one thing,
it's cutting through the hype.
To understand how forecasting or
prediction will affect
your organization,
you need to know precisely
what price has changed and
how that price change will
cascade throughout
the broader economy.
Everywhere you look, pundits are
referencing the new economy,
everyone that is
except economists.
Economists do not see a new
economy or a new economics.
This looks just like
the old economy.
The rise of the Internet
and online shopping
caused a drop in the
cost of distribution,
a drop in the cost
of communication,
and a drop in the
cost of search.
When the price of something
fundamental drops drastically,
the whole world can change.
Technological
change makes things
cheap that were once expensive.
Computers do arithmetic
and nothing more,
but in the process,
the cost of calculation
has dropped dramatically.
Alan Turing often referenced
Lady Lovelace's objection.
She said, computers
cannot think.
She was, of course correct,
but computers can calculate
cheaply and quickly.
Data collection and data
storage has also become cheap.
Data is the raw material needed
for accurate prediction.
What will the new forecasting
technologies make cheap?
Prediction. Prediction
is the process
of filling in the
missing information.
Prediction takes
what you have called
data and uses it to
generate information
that you don't have.
A cheaper prediction will
mean more predictions.
This is simple economics.
When an input such as
prediction becomes cheap,
this can enhance the
value of other things.
Economists call
these complements.
When a prediction is cheap,
there will be more predictions
and there will be more
compliments to prediction.
The single most
common question of
corporate executives
these days is,
how will forecasting and
analytics affect our
business strategy?
With the pandemic,