Remote work: An example of how to identify a downtown-related trend breeze that probably will outlast the COVID-19 crisis

Abstract

Crises are well known for their ability to create significant economic, social and political changes. In their midst, however, it is often difficult to identify those new trends that will last well beyond the crisis. That can make planning to resolve major problems difficult until the crisis eases or passes. To facilitate useful contingent planning, this paper outlines a process for identifying those trend breezes most likely to endure and be true and impactful trends. It then applies this analytical process to the huge increase in remote working that the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked. The analysis demonstrates that remote work was growing before the crisis, has other trends that reinforce it and that employees and employers have strong non-health reasons to continue a robust level of its use. Moreover, remote work probably will have significant economic impacts on urban, suburban and rural communities long after the pandemic eases. It thrives best in the industries most dependent on creative/knowledge workers and a critical mass of them are now committed to remote working. Employers that refuse to oblige them are likely to have a more difficult time recruiting and retaining such highly skilled and much sought after workers, especially since they are already in short supply.