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Practice paper

Creating a process for incorporating epidemiological modelling into outbreak management decisions

Hana Akselrod, Monica Mercon, Petter Kirkeby Risoe, Jeffrey Schlegelmilch, Joanne Mcgovern and Sandy Bogucki
Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning, 6 (1), 68-83 (2012)
https://doi.org/10.69554/KRWV3072

Abstract

Modern computational models of infectious diseases greatly enhance our ability to understand new infectious threats and assess the effects of different interventions. The recently-released CDC Framework for Preventing Infectious Diseases calls for increased use of predictive modelling of epidemic emergence for public health preparedness. Currently, the utility of these technologies in preparedness and response to outbreaks is limited by gaps between modelling output and information requirements for incident management. The authors propose an operational structure that will facilitate integration of modelling capabilities into action planning for outbreak management, using the Incident Command System (ICS) and Synchronization Matrix framework. It is designed to be adaptable and scalable for use by state and local planners under the National Response Framework (NRF) and Emergency Support Function #8 (ESF-8). Specific epidemiological modelling requirements are described, and integrated with the core processes for public health emergency decision support. These methods can be used in checklist format to align prospective or real-time modelling output with anticipated decision points, and guide strategic situational assessments at the community level. It is anticipated that formalising these processes will facilitate translation of the CDC’s policy guidance from theory to practice during public health emergencies involving infectious outbreaks.

Keywords: infectious disease; outbreaks; disaster preparedness; epidemiological modelling; incident command system; Synchronisation Matrix; crisis decision making

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Author's Biography

Hana Akselrod is an assistant professor of medicine at the George Washington University (GW) School of Medicine and Health Sciences. Since 2020 she has played a key part in pandemic response, including roles as clinical trials investigator, as co-director of the GW COVID-19 Intelligence Unit and GW COVID-19 Recovery Clinic, and as the GW Medical Faculty Associates COVID-19 Response Lead. Prior to this, her research interests focused on infectious disease epidemiology and public health systems response. She is a founding member of the GW Climate and Health Institute. She attended the Mount Sinai School of Medicine and the Yale School of Public Health.

Citation

Akselrod, Hana, Mercon, Monica, Kirkeby Risoe, Petter, Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey, Mcgovern, Joanne and Bogucki, Sandy (2012, May 1). Creating a process for incorporating epidemiological modelling into outbreak management decisions. In the Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning, Volume 6, Issue 1. https://doi.org/10.69554/KRWV3072.

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cover image, Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning
Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning
Volume 6 / Issue 1
© Henry Stewart
Publications LLP

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