An indicator-based peril framework for advancing forward-looking country risk assessments

Abstract

Conventional country-risk models consolidate many threats into a single score, often overlooking the way political, economic and security pressures interact. This paper offers an alternative: the indicator-based peril framework. It separates exposure into ten clear perils, such as non-payment, currency inconvertibility and contract alteration, and tracks each one with a focused set of public data and expert insight. The methodology supports real-time scoring, escalation logic and institutional alignment, addressing forecasting failures observed in legacy models. Results are expressed on a five-level scale that shows where risk is low, rising or acute. A close examination of Egypt’s 2023–24 financial crisis reveals how the approach highlights warning signs that standard ratings overlooked. By explaining which peril is worsening and why, the framework enables decision makers across sectors to act more promptly and tailor responses to their own risk priorities. This article is also included in The Business & Management Collection which can be accessed at https://hstalks.com/business/.