A retrospective: Looking back at ‘A Vision for the Future of Cross-border Payments’

Abstract

In 2018, Swift and McKinsey & Company published ‘A Vision for the Future of Cross-Border Payments’, outlining eight fundamental shifts expected to reshape international payments. This paper revisits those predictions and evaluates their accuracy amid rapid technological advancements, evolving customer demands and complex regulatory environments. Traditionally dominated by correspondent banking, the global cross-border payments landscape has transformed significantly, driven by emerging technologies, alternative solutions, customer requirements and heightened competition. The paper recounts how international payments — integral to global commerce, trade, and investment — have grown beyond initial projections. It explores how many predictions were largely confirmed, notably the accelerated growth in payment volumes, the shift in customer experience and the global efforts to reduce fragmentation. It also reflects on some areas, such as the integration of digital interfaces for corporate users or the cost or performing international payments, which still lag behind their retail counterparts. Furthermore, fragmentation in the payment value chain has intensified rather than converged, challenging the vision of a unified global payment experience. Regulatory initiatives have played a crucial role, with efforts to standardise frameworks and reduce transaction costs, yet alignment remains elusive. The paper underscores liquidity management as a persistent competitive edge for large global banks, despite rising competition from non-bank players. In light of these insights, the authors reaffirm the original recommendations: reimagining revenue models, refining client value propositions, upgrading operational and IT infrastructures, embracing collaborative ecosystems and redefining market roles. As the cross-border payments ecosystem continues to evolve amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties, this retrospective provides guidance for stakeholders navigating future challenges and opportunities in the dynamic world of international finance. This article is also included in The Business & Management Collection which can be accessed at https://hstalks.com/business/.