Cash demand in times of crisis

Abstract

This paper focuses on the role of specific types of crisis (technological crisis, financial market crisis, natural disaster) and their effects on the demand for cash in an international context. As evidence from the last 30 years shows, demand for cash increases during periods of crisis, regardless of the nature of the crisis. The nature of the crisis does, however, determine whether small or large banknote denominations are affected more. This study finds that times of payment uncertainties are associated with increased demand for small denominations, probably reflecting an elevated demand for transaction balances. By contrast, in times of financial crisis or general economic uncertainty, the increased demand for cash is largely the result of consumers taking precautionary actions and building up non-transaction balances; for this reason, there is greater demand for large banknote denominations. This study finds that cash continues to play an important role in crisis management. Whether this function can also be fulfilled by a future central bank digital currency, however, remains to be seen.