Evidence and engagement at Bristol Airport: A case study in planning major long-term growth

Abstract

Critical to any successful business model is the ability to look ahead to the long-term horizon and anticipate the changes that may be required. Bristol Airport, the ninth largest airport in the United Kingdom and with a strong market position across the southwest of Britain, provides a useful case study into how future passenger forecasts act as the catalyst for a deliverable strategy for expansion. The challenge in Bristol is enormous; to meet anticipated customer demand, the airport would need to continue on its steady growth path, from around 8 million passengers a year in 2017 to perhaps 20 million by the mid-2040s. To compound the task, the airport is currently operating within a cap of 10 million per annum, enforceable through the regulatory land-use planning system, and is located in a rural area with acute issues of surface access and other land-use planning constraints. The aspiration to double existing capacity, albeit over a 25-year period, clearly requires an ambitious strategy that sets a clear direction: first in defining the required infrastructure and associated development and then in providing for its long-term implementation, from consent to construction. From a standing start in late 2016, the approach to be adopted by the business needed to be viable, flexible and resilient. Moreover, the nature and scale of the task requires partnership with key stakeholders — without whom it would not be possible to resolve all the planning and connectivity challenges — and a clear, transparent and methodological approach to engaging with local communities and business partners. During the first stage of the Bristol Airport’s growth strategy, the development of its Master Plan 2050, the focus has been on these core activities, with a particular emphasis on evidence and engagement.