The AviaDem forecasting model: Illustration of a forecasting case at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport

Abstract

The paper describes an aviation market forecasting model which focuses on market forecasts for airports. Most forecasting models in use today assess aviation trends resulting from macroeconomic trends. The model described in this paper has this feature built in, but the added value of this model is that it addresses the implications for airports of network competition between airlines as well as between airports in the same population catchment areas. The model requires relatively few data. In cases where specific airport data are lacking, such data can be estimated using worldwide airline schedule data. This makes the model suitable for practically every airport in the world. The first part of the paper describes the general functionality of the model and its components. In the second part, a specific application is presented for Amsterdam Schiphol Airport.