Communication of error and uncertainty in airport environmental models

Abstract

Where changes are proposed to airport capacity, operational procedures or infrastructure, it is commonplace to rely to some extent on the findings of computer models to evaluate potential environmental impact. While simulated data provide useful foresight, this information is subject to an inherent degree of uncertainty that stems from input data and model approximations. However, conventional methods of scientific reporting (eg journal publications and technical documents) are frequently incomprehensible to all but experts. The result is that many stakeholder groups question the integrity of such reporting and/or make subjective interpretations of findings that deviate from scientifically rigorous investigation. Using an example of the proposed expansion of London Heathrow, this paper seeks to evaluate the barriers that frequently prevent the successful conversion of simulated local environmental data into information that is of best use in a contemporary decision-making environment increasingly dominated by non-experts. It concludes by making suggestions on how the reporting of simulated environmental data can be improved to increase accessibility, reduce ambiguity and better meet the information needs of an extended stakeholder community.