Incorporating external factors into country risk analysis
Abstract
Today, any sign of unexpected change in monetary policy by a central bank in a major financial centre triggers massive volatility in capital flows. Since 2013, this has been mostly in and out of emerging markets. For portfolio investors, global conditions have become a key — and at times overriding — factor in investment decisions. This paper will show how, over time, country risk analysis has slowly integrated global risk factors external to the country. It will argue that despite the evident major impact of capital flows and policy spill-overs on national economies and shrinking room for national control over domestic economic policy due to global integration, external factors are still not being given the weight that they deserve.
The full article is available to subscribers to the journal.
Author's Biography
Mina Toksoz is an Emerging Markets and Country Risk Consultant. She currently holds an Honorary Lectureship at the University of Manchester Business School, is an Associate Fellow of International Economics at Chatham House (RIIA) and Independent Director on the Supervisory Board of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Country Risk Service. She has 15 years of experience in investment banking, as Senior Consultant Economist for the Sovereign and Country Risk at Lloyds Bank Group and previously as Head of Country Risk at Standard Bank International. She has a DPhil in Economics from Sussex University and a BA from Bosporus University, Istanbul. Her publications include her latest book, The Economist Guide to Country Risk, published in November 2014.
Citation
Toksoz, Mina (2017, February 1). Incorporating external factors into country risk analysis. In the Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Volume 10, Issue 1. https://doi.org/10.69554/JVMF2293.
Publications LLP