Supply chain resilience in the age of polycrisis: Turning disruption into strategic advantage
Abstract
Supply chains increasingly operate under conditions in which disruption emerges through the interaction of multiple pressures rather than from isolated events. Escalation in such contexts is shaped by accumulation, cross-domain propagation, and timing effects that challenge conventional representations of risk and resilience. While significant research on resilience has been developed over the last two decades, much of this work remains grounded in event-centric or probability-based approaches. These offer limited analytical visibility into how interacting pressures reshape exposure and sustain escalation over time. Recognising this gap, the authors develop three tools for examining supply chain resilience under polycrisis conditions: 1) the Stress–Trigger–Crisis (STC) taxonomy distinguishes background pressures from initiating disturbances and crisis states; 2) propagation pathway analysis traces how disruptions spread across physical, informational, financial, and relational domains; and 3) the Exposure-Controllability tool compares how vulnerability and influence are distributed across supply chain structures. Using a case example from a leading logistics player, this paper reveals the application of these tools. Conceptually, the paper advances a system-level representation of resilience under interacting pressures. Practically, it provides a repeatable method for linking diagnostic analysis to organisational action. This article is also included in The Business & Management Collection which can be accessed at https://hstalks.com/business/.
The full article is available to subscribers to the journal.
Author's Biography
Nick Bailey is a strategist and systems thinker with more than 15 years’ experience advising global logistics providers, shippers, and investors. He specialises in helping organisations turn disruption into resilience and advantage, combining data-driven insight with clear narrative and practical tools. As founder of The Signal House, a research and advisory company focused on supply chain resilience and strategy, Nick works with leaders to navigate complexity and build lasting capability. His work bridges boardroom priorities with operational realities, giving decision makers the clarity and foresight to act with speed and confidence in a polycrisis world.
Omera Khan PhD is a leading voice in logistics and supply chain management, with more than 20 years’ international experience across academia, industry, and executive advisory. She is widely recognised for her expertise in supply chain risk and resilience and her ability to help organisations adapt and transform in complex global environments. Omera is Chief of Staff and Strategy and ESG Lead for DHL Supply Chain in Asia Pacific, where she also serves on the regional management board in Singapore. In this role, she helps set and coordinate the region’s strategic direction. Alongside her executive leadership, Omera is a prolific researcher and author. She has led major research projects for government bodies, research councils, and multinational companies, published in leading academic journals, and written several influential books on supply chain strategy and resilience.
Dr Carla Pereira is a lecturer in operations and supply chain management at The Open University Business School, Faculty of Business and Law. Her research focuses on supply chain management, emphasising risk, sustainability, food waste, and resilience. She actively contributes to the Intelligent Operations and Resilient Supply Chains research cluster and SupplyChain4.0 network, collaborating with various stakeholders to develop sustainable solutions for contemporary supply chain challenges. In addition to her academic work, Carla engages in industry partnerships to bridge the gap between research and practical supply chain improvements.
Dr Ioana Bratu MCIArb is a solicitor (England and Wales) and a legal scholar specialising in law and technology, international arbitration, and dispute resolution. She recently completed a PhD in law and technology, undertaken under joint supervision from the University of Exeter and The Open University, focusing on the intersection of digital platforms and legal frameworks. With experience at leading law companies and organisations such as General Electric, Bird & Bird, and Squire Patton Boggs, Ioana has worked extensively in litigation, arbitration, and corporate social responsibility. A published author and an active member of professional organisations, she contributes to both legal academia and practice while mentoring aspiring legal professionals.
Martin Christopher is an emeritus professor at Cranfield School of Management, renowned for his significant contributions to logistics and supply chain management. He has authored influential works, including ‘Logistics and Supply Chain Management’ and ‘Business Operations Models’, and co-founded the International Journal of Logistics Management, serving as its joint editor for 18 years. His achievements have been recognised with multiple honours, such as the Sir Robert Lawrence Gold Medal and the USA Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals’ Distinguished Service Award. In 2021, Martin was appointed an Officer of the Order of the British Empire for his services to industry and academia.
Citation
Bailey, Nick, Khan, Omera, Pereira, Carla, Bratu, Ioana and Christopher, Martin (2026, June 1). Supply chain resilience in the age of polycrisis: Turning disruption into strategic advantage. In the Journal of Supply Chain Management, Logistics and Procurement, Volume 8, Issue 4. https://doi.org/10.69554/UPIP9449.
Publications LLP