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1. Introduction
2. Course outline
3. Synopsis (part 4)
4. Economic modelling
5. Vaccine example
6. Vaccine model inputs
7. The vaccine economic model
8. Vaccine model outputs
9. Uncertainty in economic models
10. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis
11. Computing output uncertainty
12. Treeage and Crystal Ball
13. WinBUGS
14. Monte Carlo results
15. Basic PSA for the vaccine model
16. When Monte Carlo is impractical
17. Efficient nested Monte Carlo
18. Emulation (1)
19. 2 model runs
20. 3 model runs
21. 5 model runs
22. Emulation (2)
23. Analysing the uncertainty
24. Uncertainty and sensitivity
25. Variance-based SA
26. SA for the vaccine example
27. Vaccine example - main effects
28. C-E trajectories
29. Trajectories for the vaccine model
30. Value of information analysis
31. VoI for the vaccine model
32. Computation
33. The case of many treatments
34. Concluding remarks

Topics Covered

• The primary way to account for uncertainty in health economic evaluation is probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA)
• PSA is increasingly demanded as a part of economic evaluation to justify a claim of cost-effectiveness for new drugs and procedures
• Economic modeling and uncertainty in economic models
• Three steps for PSA: formulating uncertainty on model inputs, computing the implied uncertainty regarding model outputs, and expressing that uncertainty in ways that are useful to decision makers
• Case study: economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of a new vaccine

Links

Series:

• Bayesian Methods in Health Economics

Categories:

• Methods

Talk Citation

Publication History

• Published on February 16, 2009