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Printable Handouts
Navigable Slide Index
- Introduction
- Course outline
- Synopsis (part 4)
- Economic modelling
- Vaccine example
- Vaccine model inputs
- The vaccine economic model
- Vaccine model outputs
- Uncertainty in economic models
- Probabilistic sensitivity analysis
- Computing output uncertainty
- Treeage and Crystal Ball
- WinBUGS
- Monte Carlo results
- Basic PSA for the vaccine model
- When Monte Carlo is impractical
- Efficient nested Monte Carlo
- Emulation (1)
- 2 model runs
- 3 model runs
- 5 model runs
- Emulation (2)
- Analysing the uncertainty
- Uncertainty and sensitivity
- Variance-based SA
- SA for the vaccine example
- Vaccine example - main effects
- C-E trajectories
- Trajectories for the vaccine model
- Value of information analysis
- VoI for the vaccine model
- Computation
- The case of many treatments
- Concluding remarks
Topics Covered
- The primary way to account for uncertainty in health economic evaluation is probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA)
- PSA is increasingly demanded as a part of economic evaluation to justify a claim of cost-effectiveness for new drugs and procedures
- Economic modeling and uncertainty in economic models
- Three steps for PSA: formulating uncertainty on model inputs, computing the implied uncertainty regarding model outputs, and expressing that uncertainty in ways that are useful to decision makers
- Case study: economic model to assess cost-effectiveness of a new vaccine
Talk Citation
O’Hagan, A. (2009, February 16). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis [Video file]. In The Biomedical & Life Sciences Collection, Henry Stewart Talks. Retrieved March 1, 2021, from https://hstalks.com/bs/1147/.Publication History
Financial Disclosures
- Prof. Anthony O’Hagan has not informed HSTalks of any commercial/financial relationship that it is appropriate to disclose.
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis
Published on February 16, 2009
56 min