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Expert knowledge elicitation with SHELF: introduction

Published on June 29, 2023   11 min

A selection of talks on Methods

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0:00
Hello. This is a short introduction to the series of talks entitled 'Expert Knowledge Elicitation with SHELF'.
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Expert Knowledge Elicitation with SHELF is a short course of four lectures. It provides an introduction to the SHELF methodology. SHELF is the Sheffield Elicitation Framework, the SHELF methodology for Expert Knowledge Elicitation, often shortened to EKE. My name is Tony O'Hagan. I'm one of the developers of the SHELF method. I'm also Emeritus Professor at the University of Sheffield. In this presentation, I'm going to briefly explain to you what elicitation is, why it's important, why it needs to be done carefully and rigorously, all about the SHELF protocol, and then, to briefly explain the four lectures in the course, the series that they take you through. In other words, what I'm trying to do in this presentation is to teach you why you should follow that course.
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Elicitation is the process of representing the knowledge that is held by one or more people, we call them experts. They needn't necessarily be very expert, but they're the people whose knowledge you want to have, and it's that knowledge concerning some uncertain quantity. We're going to express that knowledge as a probability distribution for that quantity. That's the key. We're going to express knowledge, information as a probability distribution. A distribution that expresses how likely it is that that quantity takes different values according to the judgements of the experts. It's typically conducted as a dialogue between, on the one hand, the experts. They'll have what we call substantive knowledge. Knowledge about the quantity or quantities of interest that we're going to be asking them about. But also, there's a facilitator. A facilitator has a different expertise, a process expertise. Expertise about the process of elicitation, and working together to try and get the best and most accurate representation of the experts' knowledge.
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Expert knowledge elicitation with SHELF: introduction

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